WEBINAR REPORT: Paradigm change in Afghanistan: „Human security, transnational crime and terrorism: Old, new and emerging security threats in the wake of Taliban Caliphate establishment“

03.12.2021

Photo: Webinar Report Illustration

WEBINAR REPORT: Paradigm change in Afghanistan:

„Human security, transnational crime and terrorism: Old, new and emerging security threats in the wake of Taliban Caliphate establishment“

08. November 2021 - 11:00AM (CET) - Online via ZOOM

Introduction: setting the context

This report encapsulates the main discussion points and takeaways of this webinar, organized by the Regional Cooperation Council, where experts aimed to shed light on an issue that has gained lately extensive media coverage following the country’s takeover by the Taliban regime in August. This shift has been followed by a violent migration wave and a plethora of voices expressing deep concerns over the future of the country and its people. Reports published, as well as live testimonies of people in the field, speak of severe violations of the international humanitarian law and abuses of human rights, mainly those of women and children.

Five years after the EU-Turkey agreement signed in 2016 in the aftermath of the refugee crisis galvanized by the war in Syria, where the Western Balkans became a crossing of human drama and political controversy, the EU-US statement on the safe passage from Afghanistan, strongly counting on western Balkan support, is another sign of history repeating itself. The region is now called upon to prove how well the lessons of the previous refugee crisis have been learned. This time, however, this humanitarian crisis finds the region exhausted due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, that has been ravaging the regional economy, as well as local social services and health systems for over two years now and is currently manifesting itself with an aggressive fourth wave.  

Political analysts inside and outside the region tend to draw parallel lines between the Western Balkans and Afghanistan in an attempt to explain and justify social phenomena and political moves. The ambiguity of such a comparison has been one of the thin lines challenged by panelists, starting with Alessandro Minuto-Rizzo, President of the NATO Foundation, who presented his lived and professional experience in Kabul and elaborated on historical facts, but also inconsistencies that have been stereotypically associated with the issue of Afghanistan. The loss of the long awaited for ‘hope for change’ that Afghani people had been nurturing throughout the sorrowful years of conflict and socio-political fragmentation has been a result of a series of unfortunate events, but also, international mistakes, as the speaker, stressed, among which, failure to exercise enough pressure, employ more people on the ground or invest more in Afghan society and political affairs. International implication, however, did play a significant role in the modernization of the Afghan society witnessed in the last years.

The fate of the good results of these efforts seems gloomy under Taliban regime. Vigilance, cooperation, but also optimism should guide international endeavors aimed to address the situation in Afghanistan. As Constantin Prevelakis stressed in his opening remarks, in matters of security, the accumulated experience and expertise of the Western Balkans This report encapsulates the main discussion points and takeaways of this webinar, organized by the Regional Cooperation Council, where experts aimed to shed light on an issue which has gained lately extensive media coverage following the country’s takeover by the Taliban regime in August. This shift has been followed by a violent migration wave and a plethora of voices expressing deep concerns over the future of the country and its people. Reports published, as well as live testimonies of people in the field, speak of severe violations of the international humanitarian law and abuses of human rights, mainly those of women and children. as a crossroads among regions is vital in shaping the European reflection on common security defence policy and strategic autonomy.

In his opening speech,[1] the head of the Political Department of RCC, Amer Kapetanovic, elaborated on challenges that the region might face in the context of the paradigm change in Afghanistan. In the third thematic panels of the workshops, the guest experts presented their research findings, epistemological observations, but also lived experiences, providing a rich mosaic of thoughts and perspectives.

Key points of discussion

Panel 1:

Moderator: Mr Clemens M. Wechner,  Federal Ministry of the Interior, Federal Agency for State Protection and Counter Terrorism

In this panel, PCVE/CT & migration experts explained the magnitude of challenge and elaborated on the present strength and (new) vision of Al Qaeda.

Dr. Antonio Giustozzi, author of The Taliban at War (London: Hurst, 2019) and The Islamic State in Khorasan (London: Hurst, 2018), who opened the first panel on PCVE/CT by sharing his insight on the latest developments involving the Taliban and Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISKP) in Afghanistan, focused particularly on current trends of ISKP recruitment and the effects of Taliban engagement with specific international partners.

The Islamic State–Taliban conflict is an ongoing,[2] shadowy armed conflict between the Islamic State's Khorasan branch and the Taliban.  Mr Guistozzi presented an overview of the current state of play, at a time when relevant news is making headlines again, following the wave of Islamic State attacks across Afghanistan; a sustained challenge to Taliban’s taking over security, since seizing control of the country back in August.

According to the expert, the Islamic State has been engaged in vigorous efforts to destabilize and crush completely the Taliban. In order to achieve its goals, the IS has been making use of different recruitment opportunities, by attracting a wide range of people: university students; disgruntled Taliban who have fallen into ‘apostasy’ for feeling underappreciated or not properly rewarded for having fought in the war; other islamist groups that express dissatisfaction with the way of being treated by the current Taliban regime or even former security forces of the Islamic Republic. Nevertheless, one of the questions arising is whether the Islamic State has the financial capacity to support this endeavor in the long-term. It is unclear whether IS has additional forms of funding that could allow it to maintain the recruiter’s role. Dr Giustozzi estimates that the threat posed by IS is mainly a regional one, especially now that IS is fighting for its existence in Afghanistan. Dr Guistozzi expressed also skepticism over the idea of fighters moving from Syria or generally, the Middle East into Afghanistan; in case of such an unlikely development, then this would probably be a positive factor for Europe, as such individuals would hypothetically pose a greater security threat on European ground than in Afghanistan.  At this stage, evidence shows that IS cannot be considered a major security threat in the Balkans and generally, in Europe.

With regards to Al Qaeda, which is enjoying allies in central Asia and Pakistan via affiliated groups, Dr. Guistozzi describes its relations to the Taliban as ‘uneasy’:  some Taliban groups remain close to Al Qaeda,[3] while others have been trying to distance themselves. There is tension within Taliban regime on how to deal with Al Qaeda and its allies. According to the speaker, the future of a very complex relation between Al Qaeda and Taliban, and consequently, Al Qaeda’s capacity to remain operational and not fall into marginalization amidst Taliban regime, will be strongly dependent on the outcome of the ‘power struggles’ among the Emirate, especially between those who consider re-establishing diplomatic relations with western interlocutors and those who reject this idea. At the same time, the Taliban regime seems eager to restore the Emirate’s failing international image, whereby political leadership is depicted as unable to control the situation in the country, perhaps as a result of a deliberate sabotage orchestrated by groups of people inside the Taliban regime in cooperation with groups affiliated with Al Qaeda.  As the expert explained, the aim of these groups is not the isolation of the Islamic Emirate, but rather to seek strategic deals with regional countries and pursue affiliations in the wider region that would enable them to consolidate their position. In order to achieve this plan, Dr Guistozzi estimates that there will be space for negotiation and flexibility, as well as a framework for regional understanding, that might differ from country to country. As Dr Guistozzi observes, in this ‘work in process’, the Emirate has come to understand that flexibility and cooperation with regional partners is a sine-qua-non for financial survival and viability.   

Mr Adrian Shtuni, foreign policy and security analyst with a regional focus on the Western Balkans and the Eastern Mediterranean, elaborated on the current security challenges arising through the current taliban takeover and the implications of these on SEE. Mr Shtuni characterized Afghanistan as a failed state, where governance and security institutions have collapsed, while also stressing that the humanitarian and human security is deteriorating with every passing day. He believes that the rapid deterioration will generate economic insecurity spillover to the region and beyond, including SEE and EU. 

Mr Shtuni focused on security challenges that might emerge in view of this situation, starting with the fear of a new wave of refugees, irregular and illegal migrants that might further trigger human trafficking and migrant smuggling. Clearly one of the main security threats, according to the speaker, would be the presence of criminals among migrants inflitrating Europe, as thousands of prisoners were released by the taliban regime as soon as the Taliban took over power. According to figures provided by international bodies, like FRONTEX, the SEE region is one of the top 3 migrant routes, therefore, migration concerns are intense and justified.    

The second challenge highlighted by Mr Shtuni has been the addressing the lucrative business of narcotics and organized crime traditionally supported by the taliban regime.  As the speaker observed, it is not only the direct impact of these activities that should be seriously considered, but mainly the indirect implications of human and drug trafficking, in the sense of these consolidating organized crime by rendering it more operational all over SEE and EU. This business will keep thriving for as long as it will keep finding prosperous ground in times of dire economic straits, unemployment and a severe food crisis ravaging Afghanistan. 

As a third challenge, the speaker identified terrorism, a vehicle that has been traditionally employed by Taliban in order to strengthen their position and influence.  Terrorism inside and from Afghanistan might be intensified due to a number of factors, such as the uncertain outcome of the Taliban volatile relationship with Al Qaeda; the deadly rivarly with IS, which has intensified lately, taking the shape of a perpetuous, bloody competition; the fact that Taliban do not have adequate capacities or security apparati to control their borders and restrain any terrorist operations conducted by either IS or Al Qaeda. As Afghanistan is currently the center of global jihad, the ideological implications are evident for the SEE region, as well. The return of the Islamic Emirate and the way this has been depicted on the social media has triggered worldwide supporters by Al Qaeda, but also other extreme groups, some of which extend to the Balkans, as well.  Depicting jihad 'as the only way to victory' or presenting the current situation in Afghanistan as a Western defeat or 'a US and NATO failure' are some of the narratives employed to further radicalize groups of similar values.  Regarding, however, a potential flow of fighters from SEE, in a fashion similar to previous experiences, Mr Shtuni answers by expressing skepticism. In his opinion, the current situation is not the same as the one that the region had experienced some years ago,  referring to previous trends of former foreign fighters joining ISIS, particularly from the western balkan diaspora. Mr Shtuni explains that the status of the Islamic Emirate is not the same as the one that the Caliphate held in Syria and Iraq; even symbolically speaking, Afghanistan does not hold the 'holy' position of the 'Sham', therefore does not attract people who are willing to migrate for reasons of 'holy war'. Furthermore, logistically speaking, reaching Afghanistan is much more challenging that travelling from Europe to Syria and Iraq. Last but not least, the examples of persecutions and arrests on Western Balkan ground of individuals attempting to migrate to Afghanistan for jihad-related reasons would discourage other people of similar ideology. Mr Shtuni concluded that in the future scenario of a rejuvenated jihadist ideology gaining ground again, a potential number of fighters would possibly come from Central Asia and neighbouring regions, but probably not from SEE. Instead, regarding SEE-related challenged, Mr Shtuni pointed our attention to the fact of such radical phenomena paving the ground for homegrown violent radicalization in our region, the fruits of which could eventually manifest themselves inside Europe.

Mr Shtuni finalized his input with recommendations: foreseeing that Taliban will continue posing a security threat in the aforementioned capacities (as a significant source of extremist activities and ideology, a machine of production and export of drugs, as well as a severe parameter of legal and illegal migration flows etc), governments, in order to address these translational threats,  should engage into transnational approaches and policies that would enable them to prevent and combat the implications of these phenomena.

In particular, SEE economies should invest more heavily not only in boosting domestic border management capabilities, but also in increasing national and crossborder coordination among law-enforcement agencies; enhancing data sharing efforts and improving cooperation mechanisms at a regional level.   Furthermore, echoing EU voices highlighting the importance of security-related issues alongside the economic agenda, there is indisputable value in acknowledging the critical role and position of Southeast Europe in matters of EU security. In this context, EU should continue supporting the region with all means available: by boosting technical assistance and capacity building support to law enforcement agencies all across the region and especially, focusing on improving regional intra-operability. The final message conveyed by Mr Shtuni is that any increased support to law enforcement in the Western Balkans will certainly be a strategic investment in EU's security in itself.    

Mr. Sasko Kocev, Director of MAARI RC elaborated on Afghanistan's dynanics to generate another migrant crisis for Europe and the region's preparedness ahead of this threat. Regarding the question of whether history could repeat itself, Mr Kocev joined the views of the previous speakers who claimed that such as scenario would be unlikely in the current context. Mr Kocev made some comparisons with 2015, highlighting the different approach adopted by EU with regards to migration, but also the decisiveness exhibited by Greece, as the geographical border of the EU, towards the management of illegal migration coming from Turkey. The speaker emphasized the fact that lessons have been learnt; furthermore, at least for the WB region, the presence of FRONTEX is real and active and has signed status agreements with Albania, Serbia and Montenegro, helping, thus, to prevent illegal migration. In N. Macedonia, too, the border police is being supported, mostly at the border with Greece, in preventing illegal crossings.

The expert moved on to mentioning tools needed to enhance operational capacities of the region to cope with potential security threats related to migration. Mr Kocev mentioned the necessity of having compatible IT systems aimed to properly identify and register migrants. Certainly, these systems should be in accordance with the existing Schengen information system. There is also need to strengthen the capacity for voluntary or non-voluntary return of migrants to their country of origin. There is also need to support bilateral agreements with these specific countries. Moreover, better regional cooperation is indispensable.  Information sharing among asylum services and other relevant bodies is vital. The establishment of national coordination bodies and a good communication among these can also contribute significantly. The economies of the region alone might not be able to bear these tasks, this is why EU support is necessary.

Ms. Laura Lungarotti, Head of IOM Sarajevo, Sub-Regional Coordinator for the Western Balkans and IOM Bosnia and Herzegovina Chief of Mission introduced the current state of play regarding humanitarian aid and support to migrants from Afghanistan. Ms Lungarotti shared figures and data regarding migration from, but also, back to Afghanistan. The message that can be extracted from these figures and trends is that Afghanistan is characterized by mobility- which is certainly a coping mechanism for Afghani people to bounce back in times of crises.

The expert provided data about internal displacements in the country and stressed that the main reason for this phenomenon is related with food and security, loss of livelihoods, the fight for survival, but also climate-related challenges, namely drought. The expert stressed that, in contrary to what some people might assume, internal displacements are not triggered by instability, war and conflict. In this sense, efforts should be concentrated on restoring social stability and alleviating economic challenges driving Afghani people to deprivation. In this context, localized support in Afghanistan, for Afghanistan is critical for the wellbeing of its people.

Moreover, the speaker expressed IOM’s concern over the popular rhetoric accompanying a potential refugee flow from Afghanistan, immediately associated with further security threats. As she explained, this puts an extra burden on a population that has been ravaged by crises throughout the last years. Ms Lungarotti presented a different perspective of the dominant Afghanistan narrative focusing almost solely on security-related threats; instead, she underlined the need of focusing on socio-economic stability of the Afghani people.

Regarding the impact of the situation in Afghanistan in the WB, the speaker stressed that until now, there has been no record of any new arrivals from Afghanistan in the WB. There are only secondary movements of Afghani people in the WB, or at large, in the region, who are moving mostly due to economic factors.  The Afghani moving population consists of people that might be eligible to apply for an asylum seeker status, yet, the majority of these will not opt for settling in the WB, which they see exclusively as a transit route on their way to other European countries up north, where they have family ties and bonds. The speaker also emphasized that Afghani mobility is in non-alarming figures.

Ms Lungarotti said that the countries of the region have grown more efficient out of the previous migration crises and are currently more prepared to face any upcoming challenges. Overall, the speaker focused on the importance of preparedness and also, a solutions-oriented approach in managing issues affecting migrants and their families.  Ms Lungarotti concluded by referring to possible solutions that could be implemented from the Western Balkans, such as the establishment of better schemes aimed at facilitating the asylum process or alternatively, the repatriation of migrants or more efficient family reunification plans. 

Panel 2:

Moderator: Mr Agron Sojati, Head of IISG Secretariat.

In this panel national coordinators exhanged views on previous similar experiences in dealing with humanitarian migratory crises and elaborated on the need to upgrade capacities to the level of the new challenge that has arisen. The experts who took the floor were the following:

• Ms. Lejdi Dervishi, CVE Center Director, Albania.
• Ms. Ivana Veselčić, Ministry of Security, Counter-Terrorism Department, BiH.
• Mr Mensur Hoti, director of the Department of public security, Kosovo*.
• Mr Vasileios Theofilopoulos, Police Lieutenant Colonel, State Security Division of the Hellenic Police Heaquarters .
• Ms. Milica Milutinović, Montenegro PCVE representative. 
• Mr. Xheladin Ajvazi, Deputy National Coordinator of the Committee for Countering Violent Extremism and Terrorism in North Macedonia, North Macedonia.

Experts presented national findings, mechanisms and policies. Overall, various questions, dilemmas and insights were shared:

- To what extent can such withdrawal of the international community in Afghanistan encourage terrorist insurgents across the world, and what are the security implications for the region of SEE? 

-What can governments do to mitigate and prevent possible security-related implications?

- To what extent are the governments ready to cope with potential security-related challenges, and are these challenges overestimated or underestimated?

- Will the situation in Afghanistan contribute to the strengthening of extremist narratives in the SEE region? Are there mechanisms to prevent it?

- How much will the situation in Afghanistan motivate the insurgents in other places (including FTFs from the SEE) to join extremist groups like the ones in Syria and Iraq, and how likely are the chances that the country will again become a haven for jihadist groups?

- To what extent does the Afghanistan situation create another migrant crisis for Europe and the SEE region?

- Should weapons in Taliban hands worry us? And how significant is this weaponry?

Third Panel

Moderated by Ms. Jelena Bujaković, SALW Project Specialist, UNDP SEESAC.

The third and last panel explored the debate over small arms and light weapons (SALW) in Afghanistan. Some of the issues raised were the following:

What is the situation on the ground with respect to SALW?

What are some key threats stemming from their diversion and trafficking?

Are there implications for the SEE Region and what is the region doing to prevent traffficking of SALW?

The experts who contributed to this panel were:

Ms. Justine Fleischner, Head of Afghanistan Operation, Conflict Armament Research (CAR),  addressed the issue of weapon proliferations risks from Afghanistan and provided an overview of relative data.  Some of the key findings of her presentation have been the following:

-Regarding risks and risks mitigation, the humanitarian crisis intensifies all other risks;

-There is a lack of strong arms control policy in the region;

-There is evidence of some overlap between black markets for illicit weapons and drugs;

-There is a need for ‘on-the-ground’ information to better inform decision making going forward.

 Mr. Alain Lapon, UNDP SEESAC Chief Technical Adviser introduced SEESAC. Mr Lapon presented findings on illicit arms trafficking (IAT), with a focus on the Western Balkans as a source for weapons to the EU. Mr Lapon presented the Roadmap and specific activities regarding IAT. During his presentation he also referred to relevant EU and regional documents and structures.

Conclusions

• - The combination of the critical issues raised and elaborated above creates an explosive cocktail of challenges that require all regional actors’ attention and resilience, regardless of ideological disagreements or distinct priorities.
• - Most -if not all- of these challenges have a transnational character, which leaves no doubt that they are best addressed through a cooperative framework, in close alliance with the Euro-Atlantic partners.
• - Raising awareness on security and privacy issues should be a matter of national and regional priority.
• - Amid the Afghanistan crisis, it is important to reflect on the geopolitical role of South East Europe in view of the re-invigorated NATO presence in the region.
• - The strengthened interest exhibited by both US and the EU translates into a ‘new approach’ to the management of international crises and security-related phenomena. 
• - The EU should continue investing on capacity building in SEE, especially among law enforcement agents and other practitioners working in the field of PCVE/CT and migration.
• - EU should continue supporting the region with all means available: by boosting technical assistance and capacity building support to law enforcement agencies all across the region and especially, focusing on improving regional intra-operability.
• - The Western Balkans could invest in solutions-oriented approaches, such as the establishment of better schemes aimed at facilitating the asylum process or alternatively, the repatriation of migrants or launching more efficient family reunification plans, to name a few possible remedies. 
• - Reflecting on what has led to this crisis, the lessons learnt from previous experiences of similar threats and the way to move forward can have an important impact on the international community’s efficiency in managing this crisis.
• - Open, democratic dialogue with experts and practitioners in the field is indispensable in better understanding the context of the current crisis, but also possible threats and effective policy solutions.
• The Regional Cooperation Council is eager to provide space and facilitate discussions which allow this framework. The hereby webinar has been geared precisely toward this purpose and with the ambition of contributing to the global debate over the situation in Afghanistan and the response of the international community. 
• All partners involved reiterated their support towards RCC’s projects and portfolio.
• The discussion that took place within the webinar is bound to continue on the 6^th of December 2021, at the Jumbo Security Conference in Paris, France.