Securimeter 2024 - Key Findings
The 2024 SecuriMeter survey has been conducted between 14 June and 2 July 2024, and 6,000 respondents accross the Western Balkans were involved. The questionnaire for this edition consisted of around 60 questions.
Perceptions of security is stronger for the specific economies, more worrying for the region as a whole and the future
In the Western Balkans, 39% of citizens believe the region is a safe place to live, although only a small fraction (3-8%) completely agree with this sentiment. Perceptions of security differ significantly across economies, with Montenegro having the highest proportion of citizens (42%) who feel secure, while Albania (40%), Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Serbia show greater levels of insecurity. By contrast, respondents feel more secure about their own economies (52%) than they do about the region as a whole (39%). The future security outlook in the Western Balkans appears bleak, with only 31% of respondents believing the region will be more secure in the next 12 months. Concerns about potential conflicts are widespread, with 48% of citizens fearing a war between Western Balkan economies and significant worries about terrorist attacks (41%) and civil wars (40%).
Economic woes high on peoples’ list of security perception worries
The 2024 Securimeter results show that the main economic concerns for residents of the Western Balkans are the high cost of living and inflation, identified as the top issue by 77% of respondents across all demographics. Wages are the second major concern, cited by 55%, with significant variation across economies; this concern persists despite recent wage increases due to rising living costs. Older respondents (65+) are particularly worried about the pension system, with 61% viewing it as the most pressing economic problem. Socioeconomic disparities are also evident, with 36% of respondents highlighting the wealth gap and unemployment as key issues, and notable gender differences in concerns over unemployment and fuel prices.
Almost one third of citizens are yearning to leave their economies, but reluctant to welcome immigrants
The region shows a polarized view of immigration's impact, seeing it both as an opportunity and a threat. While 31% view immigration positively for alleviating labour shortages, 39% worry about job displacement. Similarly, cultural and security concerns divide opinion, with 34% seeing immigration as enriching cultural diversity, contrasted by 40% who fear social tensions. Despite these divisions, a majority across the Western Balkans advocate for a regulated approach to migration, favouring limits that align with specific labour needs. This cautious yet pragmatic stance on immigration reflects broader regional dynamics, including demographic decline and labour market needs, as well as ongoing public and political debates on the best ways to manage migration sustainably.
Data reveals significant concerns regarding human security and emigration intentions in the Western Balkans, driven by widespread economic dissatisfaction and social instability. Economic struggles such as high prices, inadequate pensions, lack of job opportunities, and poor healthcare access are common across the region, prompting many citizens, 23% of them, especially the young and economically active, to consider emigration. Additionally, the pursuit of higher salaries, better living conditions, and improved healthcare are the primary factors motivating emigration across the region, exacerbating demographic decline and posing challenges to long-term economic and social stability.
Lower resilience beyond basic needs
Household economic well-being across the Western Balkans displays widespread financial vulnerability and limited capacity to afford basic necessities. While a degree of resilience is observed in meeting fundamental needs like food and shelter, a significant proportion of the population faces challenges in managing unexpected expenses and accessing non-essential goods and services. A striking finding is the limited financial buffer available to most households in the region. Only 37% of respondents report having the capacity to cover unexpected expenses, highlighting a high degree of financial fragility. This means that a significant portion of the population operates with limited savings and is vulnerable to economic shocks, such as job loss or unexpected medical bills.
Less than half of the respondents (48%) can afford an annual one-week holiday, underscoring the limited disposable income available to a large population segment. Similarly, only 41% can comfortably manage housing costs such as mortgage, rent, or utilities, and 44% can afford to replace worn-out furniture. These findings indicate that many households prioritize basic needs over flexible spending.
Despite these challenges, a degree of resilience is observed in meeting fundamental needs. A majority of respondents (63%) report being able to afford nutritious food every other day, and 66% can maintain adequate heating and cooling in their homes. Yet, those unable to afford a proper meal in the Western Balkans region constitute a significant segment of society (21%), compared to 9.5% of the EU average.
Access to personal vehicles, often considered an indicator of economic well-being and social mobility, is relatively high in the region, with 57% of citizens reporting access to a car for personal use.
Region continues to grapple with low trust in institutions and high levels of perceived corruption
Institutional trust is notably low across the region, with political parties, social media, parliaments, the press, and television being the least trusted institutions. There are few exceptions where majority respondents have trust: religious organisations (60% a great deal and quite a trust); armed forces (55%); police (54%); universities (53%); European Union (55%) and NATO (54%). Regionally, there is least trust in political parties (80% have none at all or not very much), social media (75%), parliament (72%), the press (71%), and television (65%), although there is more than 50% distrust in all other institutions.
The SecuriMeter 2024 data highlights that corruption remains a pervasive issue in the Western Balkans, with 83% of citizens perceiving it as widespread, although fewer believe it is "very widespread" compared to the previous year. While there is a slight decline in reports of bribery, particularly in healthcare and police interactions, high-level corruption remains a significant concern.
Emerging threats: between ambiguousness and worry
The Western Balkans face a range of emerging security threats shaped by external conflicts, internal vulnerabilities, technological advancements, and misinformation. Citizens express significant concern about the impacts of the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, with about 40% feeling these conflicts negatively affect their security. Key worries include increased illegal immigration, potential terrorist infiltration, and economic instability, especially given the region’s reliance on Russian energy. The ongoing economic crisis, heightened by global supply disruptions and inflation, further exacerbates these insecurities. NATO remains the leading security mechanism, though its support varies across the region, garnering 31% of the overall support. This is an increase of 6% compared to the previous year.
The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) and the widespread dissemination of misinformation add complexity to the region's security landscape. A significant portion of the population, 40%, views AI as harmful, largely due to concerns over job displacement, privacy, and potential misuse. Meanwhile, 30% hold a neutral stance, seeing AI as neither harmful nor helpful, 18% believe it is mostly helpful, and 11% are unsure or refuse to express an opinion. The spread of misinformation, fuelled by social media and anonymous online platforms, further undermines trust in institutions and media, presenting additional challenges to maintaining political stability and societal cohesion.
The region has been increasingly targeted by foreign-backed and home-grown misinformation in recent years, made worse by deep public mistrust of governmental institutions. Misinformation in the Western Balkans presents a complex challenge with significant implications for political stability, societal cohesion, and the integrity of media landscapes. According to the survey, the biggest sources of misinformation are online anonymous social networks with 43%, followed by social media influencers with 35%, while independent journalists are on the other side of the spectrum with 20%.
* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence